Valentine’s Season Starts Now

The most profitable days to sell Valentine’s merchandise start around January 27^th and continue through February 9^th. In 2021, the conversion rate for searches that included the word Valentine increased prior to the peak level of cost per click (CPC) for these searches. That peak in conversion rate prior to the highest CPCs led to the lowest advertising cost of sale (ACoS) of the 2021 Valentine’s season.

The flip side of these good conditions happened immediately after the holiday. CPCs remained high after the conversion rate dropped, which led to an increase in ACoS. 

Pro Tip: CPCs are expected to rise at least 40%, so to capture the upside of the volume of this holiday period consider raising your bids by at least that much or enabling strong dynamic bidding modifiers. Set a calendar reminder on February 10th to resume bidding at more modest levels.

We have made some graphs to illustrate the above points. The graphs compare volume to January 26th, which is immediately prior to the season’s largest increase in conversion rate.

CPCs for Valentine searches are highest between February 5^th and February 13^th.

The conversion rate for Valentine searches peaks from January 27^th through February 9^th.

This is reflected in the ACoS for Valentine searches dropping below 30 on January 27^th and staying below 30 until February 9^th.

After February 9th, ACoS fluctuates quite a bit before leaping to a much higher level on February 22nd. As the total volume of impressions for Valentine searches is much lower by this point, it’s safer to reduce your bids to baseline levels once the holiday has passed.

By February 16th, impressions for Valentine searches had resumed their pre-holiday levels. *Please note that the baseline for this graph is January 1st.

Current CPCs for Valentine searches are slightly higher and their conversion rate is slightly lower than this time last year. This is causing the current ACoS for Valentine searches to be about 7 points higher than last year. We expect to see last year’s trend repeat, with the lowest ACoS of the Valentine’s season in late January and early February. However, the actual value of ACoS might not go as low as it did last year.

By watching your trend line for both CPC and conversion rate, you will be able to evaluate where the market is going. Take advantage of rising consumer interest and then protect yourself from inefficient spending when the season ends by making sure that your bids are reflective of the current state of the market. 

CPCs are expected to rise at least 40%, so to capture the upside of the volume of this holiday period consider raising your bids by at least that much or enabling strong dynamic bidding modifiers. Set a calendar reminder on February 10th to resume bidding at more modest levels.